Author(s)

Pengpeng Zhou ¹, Yile Wang ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ School of Economics, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing, China

Corresponding Author

Yile Wang

ABSTRACT

To reveal the relationship between improvements in agricultural production efficiency and high-quality regional economic development, this study utilizes annual data from 31 provincial-level regions in China spanning 2016 to 2020, resulting in a dataset of 155 province-year observations. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis–Malmquist (DEA–Malmquist) method is employed to measure Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (Agricultural TFP), while the level of high-quality economic development is assessed across dimensions such as economic development, government governance, urban-rural coordination, green and low-carbon development, and shared development. Subsequently, the Global Moran's I and the Coupling Coordination Degree Model are used to analyze the spatial distribution and the evolution of coordination between the two variables. Furthermore, a Two-way Fixed Effects Model (TWFE), a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), and a threshold model are applied to examine the overall association, spatial effects, and differences across development stages. The results indicate that the mean high-quality economic development index rose from 0.365 to 0.462, while cumulative Agricultural TFP increased from 1.000 to 1.386; the average coupling coordination degree between the two improved from 0.499 to 0.662. In the TWFE estimation, the coefficient for Agricultural TFP was 0.446 and statistically significant at the 5% level. Decomposition of spatial effects revealed a significant direct effect of 0.368, whereas the indirect effect was 0.297 but not statistically significant. Further threshold testing identified variations in development stages based on per capita GDP, with a threshold value of 11.069; the estimated coefficient for Agricultural TFP was 0.375 (and significant) below this threshold, but the association weakened markedly once the threshold was exceeded. By characterizing the relationship between agricultural productivity and high-quality economic development across temporal, spatial, and developmental dimensions, this study offers a reference for formulating targeted agricultural and regional development policies tailored to regions with varying development foundations. 

KEYWORDS

Agricultural Total Factor Productivity; High-Quality Economic Development; Spatial Coupling; Spatial Heterogeneity

CITE THIS PAPER

Pengpeng Zhou, Yile Wang. Agricultural Total Factor Productivity and High-Quality Economic Development in China: Spatial Coupling and Heterogeneous Effects. Information Systems and Economics (2026). Vol. 7, No.1, 176-185. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/infse.2026.070119.

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